Tesla Model S. Image courtesy of Tesla Motors.

Thinking About a Tesla Model S? Here’s an Easy Way To Forecast Your Delivery Date

Hat-tip to GreenTECH, a regular contributor on green tech opportunities at Seeking Alpha.com.  He or she wrote a great article in April of this year on a simple way to infer demand for new Teslas.  The article included this link to a great delivery forecasting spreadsheet.  Click here for the spreadsheet link, and check out his post below.

Tesla’s level of demand has become the primary point of divergence between shorts and longs. Whereas 2013 and 2014 were plagued with stock-moving reports about battery fires and motor issues, such stories have faded mostly into the background.

 

Indeed many investors understand that the Tesla brand was not irrevocably destroyed. Most people with issues were patient, fanatic early-adopter types and stuck by their cars. Most future customers wont even be aware of the fires at all since a large portion of the most recent articles about the Model S are written during a breathless high induced from its over-the-top 0-30 acceleration.

 

This makes it exceedingly simple to gauge future market performance. If it really is now just an issue of free cash flow and sales, we can leave it up to the numbers.

 

Demand

 

Tesla is now releasing a new configuration each quarter and is due to release an entirely new vehicle later this year. If past is prologue, investors should expect the Model X release to be staggered as well. This makes the old model of taking a cursory glance at their US delivery time and drawing far-flung conclusions even less of a reliable process than before.

 

Assuming the delivery date is the first order approximation of the backlog, let’s take the US orders of the Tesla Model S 85D. From October to Early December, new orders were given an estimated delivery date of February 2015. This switched to March through early January when it shifted to April. February orders were predicted to reach customers in May and current orders are due by June.

 

Check here for a spreadsheet made by owners to track this.

 

It is important to note that you can only attempt to calculate the backlog from at least the earliest possible date of delivery. Clearly, the first car ordered in October and set to be delivered in February is not behind 4-5 months of orders. It is the very first car in line. Thus the backlog was less than a month through early December and grew to a little over 3 months through January. After deliveries started in February, the backlog gradually decreased to about 8 weeks and held around there for about a month until today.

Check out the rest of the article, it’s quite good.

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Copyright 2015 Hybrid and Electric Car News

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Sebastian James

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