Litium ion cost trends, courtesy of Björn Nykvist & Måns Nilsson

Nails in the Combustion Coffin: EV Battery Production Prices Plummet

I saw this snippet in Jesse Jenkins’ “Full Spectrum”, and my eyes bulged out:

Electric vehicle (EV) battery costs have fallen more rapidly than many projections, according to a new survey of battery costs published in Nature Climate Change. Researchers from the Stockholm Environment Institute scoured peer-reviewed journals, consultancy reports, and news items to construct an original data set of EV battery pack cost estimates from 2007 to 2014. Average battery pack costs have fallen 14 percent per year across the industry, which has seen sales volumes double annually in recent years. EV battery packs now cost $410 per kilowatt-hour (kWh) of storage capacity on average (with a 95 percent confidence interval ranging from $250–670 per kWh)…


At $300 per kWh, electric vehicles can begin to compete economically with traditional petroleum-fueled internal combustion engines when gasoline costs $3-5 per gallon (€0.73-1.22 per liter), according to separate analyses from global consulting firm McKinsey and the International Energy Agency. The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) has set a target of $150 per kWh for battery electric vehicles to become broadly competitive and see widespread market adoption….


My mind immediately goes back to the pundits of the late 00’s.  “Electric cars are little grey cubes to crush our souls,” “hybrid cars are being forced upon us by the Obama Administration,” “we need the freedom to drive 8 cylinders,” etcetera.

Meanwhile back in reality, hybrids and electrics have since become a legitimate part of the car buying conversation.  More and more hybrid and electrics are being registered, Tesla is the biggest name in cars even though they sell less units than most every maker and marque.

Keep in mind that these are the market trends that Elon Musk incorporated into his decision to build the Gigafactory.  If battery prices have plummeted 14% year over year, what happens when 1 factory can supply the EV battery demand from the past 10 years?

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Sebastian James

Accept no substitutes

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